@Article{AnjosTole:2018:MeReAs,
author = "Anjos, Luciano J. S. and Toledo, Peter Mann de",
affiliation = "{Universidade Federal Rural da Amaz{\^o}nia (UFRA)} and
{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Measuring resilience and assessing vulnerability of terrestrial
ecosystems to climate change in South America",
journal = "PLoS One",
year = "2018",
volume = "13",
number = "3",
pages = "e0194654",
month = "Mar.",
abstract = "Climate change has been identified as the primary threat to the
integrity and functioning of ecosystems in this century, although
there is still much uncertainty about its effects and the degree
of vulnerability for different ecosystems to this threat. Here we
propose a new methodological approach capable of measuring and
mapping the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems at large scales
based on their climatic niche. To do this, we used high spatial
resolution remote sensing data and ecological niche modeling
techniques to calculate and spatialize the resilience of three
stable states of ecosystems in South America: forest, savanna, and
grassland. Also, we evaluated the sensitivity of ecosystems to
climate stress, the likelihood of exposure to non-analogous
climatic conditions, and their respective adaptive capacities in
the face of climate change. Our results indicate that forests, the
most productive and biodiverse terrestrial ecosystems on the
earth, are more vulnerable to climate change than savannas or
grasslands. Forests showed less resistance to climate stress and a
higher chance of exposure to non-analogous climatic conditions. If
this scenario occurs, the forest ecosystems would have less chance
of adaptation compared to savannas or grasslands because of their
narrow climate niche. Therefore, we can conclude that a possible
consolidation of non-analogous climatic conditions would lead to a
loss of resilience in the forest ecosystem, significantly
increasing the chance of a critical transition event to another
stable state with a lower density of vegetation cover (e.g.,
savanna or grassland).",
doi = "10.1371/journal.pone.0194654",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0194654",
issn = "1932-6203",
language = "en",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}